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The data below reflects this — modified training, no intensity, watching trends instead of chasing splits.
Resting heart rate — measured by Apple Watch overnight. Lower RHR over time means your heart is getting stronger and pumping more blood per beat (stroke volume). Rising RHR 3+ days in a row is an early overtraining or illness signal.
Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio — this week's km vs your 4-week rolling average (Gabbett, BJSM 2016). Sweet spot 0.80–1.30 keeps injury risk low. Below 0.8 = undertraining. Above 1.5 = spike zone. Spikes predict injury better than high mileage alone.